What Becomes of Elon Musk’s Twitter Takeover? Here Are Some Hypothetical Odds

What Becomes of Elon Musk’s Twitter Takeover? Here Are Some Hypothetical Odds
Fact Checked by Michael Peters

It’s been a tough month for billionaires: Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried lost nearly $15 billion in a single day when his cryptocurrency exchange collapsed, Donald Trump’s endorsed candidates performed only slightly better than FTX, and Elon Musk’s purchase of Twitter has made a trainwreck look like a smiling Thomas the Tank Engine.

Musk’s blue check verification fee was a disaster; hate-filled posts aimed at, well, everyone, but with a special sentiment aimed at Blacks, Jews, and single women filled the Twittersphere; real celebrities started leaving in droves and celebrity impersonators started arriving.

Musk announced a mass layoff. Advertisers pulled out, and Musk blamed the media. Workers quit, and Musk blamed the workers. Then with morale at an all-time low, Musk told his remaining staff that if they weren’t willing to work longer, harder, and smarter, they should leave. More left.

Musk decided to close Twitter offices until Monday. Then, according to CNBC, he asked Twitter engineers to come into the “closed” San Francisco headquarters to help him “better understand the Twitter tech stack.”

A tech stack, by the way, is group of technologies a company uses to run what it needs to run. One might have thought Musk would have understood that before he spent $44 billion in toddler tantrum money to overpay for a platform he clearly has no idea what to do with, and worse, no idea how to treat the people he needs to actually do it.

Musk’s real business, Tesla, in the meantime, has dropped $50/share since Musk purchased Twitter on Oct. 28. At the time, Musk hailed himself as Chief Twit. With Musk’s personally owned Tesla shares losing nearly $8 billion in value since the purchase, and another $44 billion at risk with Twitter, Chief Twit seems apt.

He might have done better investing his money at New York sportsbooks.

As for Musk’s genius reputation, the Twit has hit the fan. Making matters even thornier, real Twitter former employees plus imposters and parody accounts have turned Musk into a punchline . . . On Twitter.


Twitter Takeover Hypothetical Odds

Outcome Implied Probability Odds
Twitter sells for ½ or less than what Elon purchased it for29%+245
Twitter experiences a total shutdown due to a collapse in infrastructure38%+163
Twitter files for bankruptcy24%+317
‘Twitter 2.0’ becomes the free speech platform of Musk’s vision9%+1011
Hypothetical odds by NewYorkBets.com and not available for wagering.

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Can the company be saved?

There is a lot of speculation about what the future holds for the platform and our own tech department — who actually came to work — chose to make hypothetical odds on some possible outcomes. It seemed like a fun, cheeky way to insert ourselves into this ongoing conversation.

The most likely scenario is that Twitter stops Tweeting and shuts down because Musk runs out of rubber bands, chewing gum, hamster wheels and employees. The second likeliest option is he packs it in and sells it for a fraction of what he paid (personally, I think this is very unlikely).

More likely? The company files for bankruptcy, and the Tweet announcing that crashes the system with 44 billion likes and retweets.

Last option is the ultimate sucker bet — good thing it isn’t available on New York mobile betting apps — ‘Twitter 2.0’ becomes the free speech platform of Musk’s vision.

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Contributors

Howard Gensler is a veteran journalist who’s worked at the Philadelphia Daily News, TV Guide and the Philadelphia Inquirer and is a founding editor of bettorsinsider.com.

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