Bills Playoff Chances June 2023: Tracking the Bills Playoff Picture

Fact Checked by Shannon Lane
Josh Allen high fives teammates

Key Takeaways:

  • The Bills' playoff chances are 70.6%, which is the highest in their division and one of the highest in the NFL.
  • The Bills have a 20.8% chance of winning the AFC East. They are currently the odds favorite to win.
  • Buffalo currently has a 10.5% chance of winning the Super Bowl in 2024.

The Bills have been postseason regulars the past few seasons, but they have been incapable of winning the Lombardi Trophy. Josh Allen is constantly in the MVP conversation, and the Bills have had one of the best defenses in the league over the past two seasons, but they have not been able to put it all together. Could this finally be the year Buffalo gets over the hump?

Based on the Bills’ Super Bowl odds, NY oddsmakers are expecting another great season from the Bills. But Buffalo’s Super Bowl window may be closing. That being said, I will be tracking the Bills' playoff chances daily, as well as breaking down the probability the Bills to win the AFC East, the AFC championship, and the Bills Super Bowl odds.


What are the Bills’ Playoff Chances?

The Bills playoff chances are 70.6%. Buffalo did not do a ton to improve their team this offseason as they were strapped for cash. The table below shows the Bills’ chances to make the playoffs, win the AFC East, win the AFC, win the Super Bowl, and more data for context. 

💪 Bills Playoff Chances70.6% Chance
Bills Miss Playoffs29.4% Chance
🏆 Bills Win Super Bowl10.5% Chance
👑 Bills Win AFC20.8% Chance
🔥 Bills Win AFC East43.5% Chance
🗽 New York Times Postseason Simulator for Bills Not Available Yet
🏈 Bills ESPN Football Power Index (FPI)5.6 FPI
Data Last Verified by ExpertJune 8, 2023

I calculated the Bills’ chances of making the playoffs by converting the odds from DraftKings Sportsbook into an implied probability. Every team has odds attached to them, which converts to an implied probability of making or missing the playoffs. The Bills, according to DraftKings New York, are -240 to make the postseason which converts to a 70.6% chance to make the playoffs

To calculate the Bills' chances of missing the postseason, you can simply subtract 70.6% from 100%. As you can see, Buffalo has a much higher chance of making the playoffs than missing them. 

Buffalo is the favorite to win the AFC East. That means Buffalo has the lowest odds of winning the division, and those low odds convert to a 43.5% chance of winning the division, higher than any other team in the division. Lastly, Buffalo has the lowest odds of winning the AFC championship at 20.8%, and they have a 10.5% chance of winning the Super Bowl

While using odds is a great way to get an understanding of how a team is expected to perform, there are other metrics that should be factored in. In order to add more context, I am using the New York Times’ postseason simulator and ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) to inform the Bills progress.

Bills Playoff Chances: Key Offseason Updates June 2023

What did the Bills do this offseason to improve their Super Bowl odds? Here is a list of some important news and other developments from Buffalo this offseason:

  • 🗓️ May 2: The Bills sign DT Poona Ford.
  • 🗓️ May 1: The Bills sign RB Latavius Murray to a one-year deal.
  • 🗓️ April 29: Florida WR Justin Shorter, Ole Miss guard Nick Broeker and Oregon St. CB Alex Austin are drafted on Day 3.
  • 🗓️ April 28: Florida guard O'Cyrus Torrence and Tulane LB Dorian Williams are drafted on Day 2.
  • 🗓️ April 27: The Bills draft Utah TE Dalton Kincaid with the 25th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft to bolster their tight end room.
  • 🗓️ April 20: Buffalo signs kicker Tyler Bass to a four-year, $21M contract extension.
  • 🗓️ April 18: The Bills re-sign DE Shaq Lawson to a one-year deal.
  • 🗓️ April 17: Buffalo re-signs LB A.J. Klein to a one-year deal.
  • 🗓️ April 6: The Bills re-sign DT Jordan Phillips to a one-year deal.
  • 🗓️ March 31: Buffalo signs safety Taylor Rapp to a one-year deal.
  • 🗓️ March 21: The Bills sign former Patriots RB Damien Harris to a one-year deal.
  • 🗓️ March 17: The Bills release WR Isaiah McKenzie and re-sign CB Dane Jackson to a one-year deal.
  • 🗓️ March 16: The Bills sign QB Kyle Allen, guard Connor McGovern, and WR Deonte Harty to strengthen their offense.
  • 🗓️ March 15: The Bills re-sign safety Jordan Poyer to a two-year deal.
  • 🗓️ March 12: Buffalo re-signs starting LB Matt Milano to a two-year contract extension.
  • 🗓️ Feb. 28: The Bills announce defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier is taking a leave of absence. He has been the team’s defensive coordinator since 2017.

Where Can I Bet on the Bills to Make the Playoffs?

At present, you can bet on the Bills playoff chances using sportsbooks such as BetMGM NY, DraftKings NY and any other NY sportsbook. 

Our top-rated NY sportsbook app is BetMGM NY, since it offers the best features to help you maximize your bets.

If you have doubts about the Bills’ ability to make it to the playoffs, you may also place a bet on them to not make it. Given the possibility that numerous New Yorkers may place bets on the Bills to make it to the playoffs, it is anticipated that all NY sportsbooks will offer these betting options. I will keep you informed as these other books release these lines.


Visit for T&Cs. Must be 21+ and physically present in NY only. New Customer Offer. All promotions are subject to qualification and eligibility requirements. Rewards issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets. Bonus bets expire in 7 days from issuance. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling Problem? Call (877-8-HOPENY) or text HOPENY (467369).

Looking Ahead: Bills Playoff Picture

Buffalo is expected to make the playoffs, and it is not hard to see why. But their division is one of the hardest in football, so Buffalo will not have a cakewalk back to the postseason. The Jets got much better, the Dolphins made the playoffs last year returning much of their roster, and the Patriots have the best coach in NFL history on their sideline in Bill Belichick.

Still, Buffalo is expected to win the division and make the playoffs. Having a quarterback like Josh Allen is a huge component of Buffalo’s success, and so is their defense. This Bills team should have the Super Bowl on its' mind this season, not just making the playoffs.


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Do the Bills Have a Chance to Make the Playoffs?

Yes, the Bills have a chance of making the playoffs, like every NFL team, since the 2023 season hasn't started yet. According to New York sports betting, the Bills are expected to make it to the playoffs.

Although the Bills did not make any splash signings in free agency, NY oddsmakers are betting on the strength of their current roster to keep up the same level of play. QB Josh Allen has been in MVP consideration for most of his career. Buffalo boasts one of the best defenses in the NFL, and they have one of the best home-field advantages in all of football. 

Despite being in a tough division, the Bills are the favorite to win the AFC East. The Jets are stronger this year with QB Aaron Rodgers now on the roster, and the Patriots and Dolphins are tough as well. Yet the Bills are still favorites to win the AFC East and make the postseason for a reason: They have an MVP-caliber quarterback, great coaching, and a stout defense.

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Are the Bills Out of the Playoffs?

No, the Bills are not out of the playoffs yet since the 2023 NFL season has not begun. Based on the current NY sportsbooks odds, the Bills have a 70.6% chance of making the playoffs, which means they have just a 29.4% chance of not making the playoffs. However, these odds are dynamic, and they change constantly based on a variety of factors, so make sure to bookmark this page and check for new updates as the season progresses.


Buffalo Bills Playoffs FAQ


Dan Thompson is a Lead Betting Analyst for Dan's unique experience makes him the perfect fit to find the latest storylines and interesting betting angles impacting New York sports betting.

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