How Likely Is It Judge Again Leads MLB in Home Runs?

How Likely Is It Judge Again Leads MLB in Home Runs?
Fact Checked by Pat McLoone

One could not have written a better script for Aaron Judge to open the 2023 Major League Baseball season.

The New York Yankees outfielder re-signed with the only team he ever has played for during the offseason (nine years, $360 million) and immediately was named captain.

Coming off an MVP season in which he hit an American League record 62 home runs, Judge picked up right where he left off as he looks to lead the Bronx Bombers to their first World Series appearance since 2009.

In the team's season home opener last Thursday, Judge hit a homer in his first at-bat against his hometown team, the San Francisco Giants, in a 5-0 victory. Judge also hit a home run Sunday. now wants to see what Judge could do for an encore. And this insight could help you place bets when you get to use your NY sportsbook promos.

Judge Favored to Lead League Again

As baseball season opened, we came up with hypothetical odds on players who could lead MLB in home runs this season.

Utilizing, used its 2023 Steamer projections to develop these hypothetical odds.

Hypothetical Odds to Lead MLB in HRs

RankPlayer, TeamProjected Home RunsOdds
⚾ 1Aaron Judge, Yankees44+350
⚾ T-2Mike Trout, Angels39+800
⚾ T-2Kyle Schwarber, Phillies39+800
⚾ T-2Vlad Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays39+800
⚾ 5Pete Alonso, Mets38+1000
⚾ T-6Shohei Otani, Angels35+1400
⚾ T-6Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres35+1400
⚾ T-8Kyle Tucker, Astros34+1800
⚾ T-8Yordan Alvarez, Astros34+1800
⚾ T-8Austin Riley, Braves34+1800
⚾ T-8Matt Olson, Braves34+1800


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Sizing Up Contenders

Judge, the favorite (hypothetical odds of +350) with a projected total off 44 blasts, certainly has gotten off to an early start. For contrast, Judge hit his first home run last season at home on April 13, so a 15-day head start this year already puts him on a fast track.

Three players are tied for second: South Jersey native and Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout, Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. and Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Kyle Schwarber are all projected to hit 39 homes runs at odds of +800.

Another New York player – first baseman Pete Alonso of the New York Mets – rounds out the top five at +1000, with a projected total of 38 this season.

Alonso, the two-time Home Run Derby champion, hit 40 home runs last season for the second time in his career. In doing so, he became the first Met to hit 40 home runs in two separate seasons. In just four seasons (one that was shortened), Alonso has posted 146 career blasts, currently No. 7 in franchise history. Alonso hit one home run in his first six games.

Caesars NY (promo code EMPIREFULL) is a standout sportsbook that is accepting bets on who will be the 2023 Regular Season Home Run Leader. FanDuel NY also is offering futures odds on the home run champion.

In New York State you can’t wager on baseball awards that are decided by voting, but we can look at the national odds for Judge and Alonso to be named American League MVP and National League MVP, respectively.

In the AL, Judge is second at +500 odds, behind hitting-pitching marvel Shohei Ohtani (+200).

In the NL, bettors in states that allow wagering on the MVP race currently can get Alonso at +1400. That is 10th in the league. Juan Soto of San Diego leads the way at +550.

Find out more: Best MLB Betting Sites In New York.



Lou Monaco has been a columnist for Gaming Today in Las Vegas and has over 30 years sports experience with previous stints at ESPN SportsTicker, Daily Racing Form and Oddschecker.

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