Conversation Dominators: Best Bets Among GRAMMYs Nominees from New York

Conversation Dominators: Best Bets Among GRAMMYs Nominees from New York
Fact Checked by Michael Peters

Every year since 1959, the Grammy Awards have been presented by the Recording Academy of the United States to recognize achievements in music and the recording arts. This year will be the 65th edition of the award show, and as usual New York-born artists are well represented among the nominees.

New York sportsbooks don’t have Grammy odds, so to analyze New York-born artists chances of winning, has created a hypothetical betting board. We’ve chosen some of the state’s biggest names, and assigned a set of odds beside them, indicating their likelihood of leaving Arena with a Grammy.

Hypothetical Odds for New York Nominees

Nominee Odds of Winning at Least 1 Grammy
Nicholas Britell-300
Mary J. Blige-150
Christina Aguilera+100
Marc Anthony+200
Lady Gaga+300
Yeah Yeah Yeahs+400
Post Malone+1000
Lin Manuel-Miranda+5002 provides fun stories like this one, as well as all the NY sportsbook promos.

Breaking Down NY’s Best Grammy Shots

Here’s a look at New York’s best chances to win a Grammy. This year’s awards show is Feb. 5 at 8 p.m. on CBS.

Bookmark for reviews of NY sports betting apps.

Nicholas Britell — Best Score Soundtrack for a Visual Media — 1/3

Presented each year since the second Grammys, this award goes to a composer(s) for their work scoring a film or television project. It has been won 11 times by John Williams, who took home the award six years in a row from 1978-1983 for scoring classics like Star Wars, Raiders of the Lost Ark, and E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial.

This year, New York City’s Nicholas Brittell is nominated for his score from HBO’s Succession. Easily one of TV’s buzziest shows, the main theme from Succession has been heavily meme-d, taking on a life of its own online.

While previously unheard of for a TV show to win here, it’s happened twice since 2020. We’ve put Brittell’s odds at 1/3, suggesting there’s about a 75% chance he pulls off the victory.

Mary J. Blige — Record of the Year, Album of the Year, Best R&B Performance, Best Traditional R&B Performance, Best R&B Song, Best R&B Album — 2/3

A recipient of nine total golden gramophones, Mary J. Blige returns to the Grammys this year with a great shot at winning. She’s nominated for six total awards alongside her album Good Morning Gorgeous, marking a major comeback for MJB, who hasn’t won a Grammy since Obama’s first term.

For the big awards — that is, Record of the Year and Album of the Year — she’s likely outmatched by Grammy frontrunners Adele, Beyoncé, Kendrick Lamar and Harry Styles. But the fact she’s nominated in those categories show she’s a real contender in the other four R&B categories she’s nominated in. We put her odds of nabbing a Grammy at 2/3, or -150 in American odds — suggesting we think there’s about a 60% chance.

The most likely win for Blige is Best R&B Album. The critically acclaimed Good Morning Gorgeous features a veritable who’s who of Rap producers — Anderson .Paak, H.E.R., DJ Khaled — and moves deftly between soul and hip hop, showcasing Blige’s well-documented acumen in both genres.

It also doesn’t hurt that Best R&B Album is the only category where Blige isn’t nominated against Beyoncé, whose album RENAISSANCE is competing in Best Dance/Electronic Music Album.

Christina Aguilera — Best Latin Pop Album — 1/1

Winner of five Grammys, Staten Island’s Christina Aguilera is nominated this year for her Spanish-language album Aguilera.

Christina, whose father is from Ecuador, has been singing in her second tongue since the beginning of her career. In fact, Xtina’s second studio album Mi Reflejo was released in 2000 and features the track “Genio Atrapado” — a Spanish version of her breakout hit “Genie in a Bottle.”

While Christina Aguilera’s celebrity alone could sway the mostly American Grammy voters, we’re putting her odds at even money to win. There is just too much talent in the Latin music scene to award her with a Grammy for name value only.

Marc Anthony — Best Tropical Latin Album — 2/1

While most of the Grammy conversation dominating Marc Anthony surrounds his tumultuous split from Jennifer Lopez, and not his new album "Pa’llá Voy," the 54-year-old Latin music superstar has a great shot of winning his third Grammy this year.

His biggest competition is Columbian superstar Carlos Vives, who has just as many wins as Marc Anthony in this category, and could easily take it again this year.

Lady Gaga — Best Song Written for a Visual Media — 3/1

New York City’s Lady Gaga has already won this award twice and has a shot of winning her 14th Grammy in 2023 for “Hold My Hand” from last year’s box office smash Top Gun: Maverick.

But she’ll have to take down Bruno to do it. The favorite for this award is “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” from Disney’s Encanto, which charted No. 1 on the Billboard charts after becoming a TikTok sensation.

But Encanto came out in late 2021, so there’s a chance voters have moved on by now. At 3/1, we’re giving Lady Gaga a 25% shot of pulling off the upset with her delightful power ballad.

Yeah Yeah Yeahs — Best Alternative Performance, Best Alternative Album — 4/1

Led by the virtuoso voice of Karen O, the Yeah Yeah Yeahs came up during the New York City rock revival of the early-2000s. They’ve been nominated for Best Alternative Album three times previously — but never won. While their album Cool It Down is unlikely to flip the trend, they have a better chance in the Best Alternative Music Performance category.

“Spitting off the Top of the World” is a dreamy, dynamic rock ballad featuring the unique vocal stylings of indie rock favorite Perfume Genius. We’ve put them at 4/1, reflecting a 20% implied chance of them winning.

The favorites in both categories are UK punk rockers Wet Leg, who are also nominated for Best New Artist, and come in hot with their critically celebrated self-titled album steadily gaining traction in the final months of 2022. While it likely goes to Wet Leg, Yeah Yeah Yeahs do have an outside chance here.

Post Malone — Best Pop Duo Performance — 10/1

Hailing from Syracuse, rapper Post Malone has been nominated for 10 Grammys, winning exactly zero. Unfortunately, that trend appears likely to continue in 2023.

“I Like You (A Happier Song)” is a catchy radio-friendly earworm featuring Doja Cat (who is nominated five times this year), but this award is going to “Unholy” by Sam Smith and Kim Petras.

“Unholy” is one of the most popular songs in the world right now, and Sam Smith has a great track record on Grammy night. In 2015, he won Song of the Year and Record of the Year for his single “Stay With Me.” He also won Best New Artist that year as well.

Lin-Manuel Miranda — Best Audio Book, Narration, and Storytelling Recording — 50/1

We put Lin-Manuel Miranda’s odds at 50/1 — which means a $100 wager would win $5,000. While technically these odds imply he has 1.96% chance to win, it isn’t going to happen.

This year, he’s nominated for narrating the young adult novel Aristotle and Dante Dive into the Waters of the World.

But a recording of a novel has not won this award since Orson Welles took it home for his reading of the sci-fi novel Donovan’s Brain in 1982. Memoirs, on the other hand, do great, and Viola Davis is almost certain to win with the recording of her book, "Finding Me."

Don’t feel too bad for the "Hamilton" creator — I’m sure he’ll get a shout out during the acceptance speech if “We Don’t Talk about Bruno” wins.

New York-Born Grammy Nominees

  • Samara Joy: Best New Artist, Best Jazz Vocal Album
  • Pusha T:  Best Rap Album
  • Mary J. Blige: Record of the Year, Album of the Year, Best R&B Performance, Best Traditional R&B Performance, Best R&B Song, Best R&B Album
  • Post Malone: Best Pop Duo Performance
  • Bebe Rexha: Best Dance/Electronic Recording
  • Big Thief: Best Alternative Music Performance, Best Alternative Music Album
  • Yeah Yeah Yeahs: Best Alternative Music Performance, Best Alternative Music Album
  • Norah Jones: Best Traditional Pop Vocal Album
  • Cory Henry: Best Progressive R&B Album
  • Cheryl B. Engelhardt: Best New Age, Ambient, or Chant Album
  • The Baylor Project: Best Jazz Vocal Album
  • Steve Gadd: Best Large Jazz Ensemble Album
  • Ronnie Cuber: Best Large Jazz Ensemble Album
  • Christina Aguilera: Best Latin Pop Album
  • Marc Anthony: Best Tropical Latin Album
  • Victor Manuelle: Best Tropical Latin Album
  • Spanish Harlem Orchestra: Best Tropical Latin Album
  • Taj Mahal: Best Traditional Blues Album
  • Shemekia Copeland: Best Contemporary Blues Album
  • Punch Brothers: Best Folk Album
  • Mel Brooks: Best Audio Book, Narration, and Storytelling Recording
  • Lin-Manuel Miranda: Best Audio Book, Narration, and Storytelling Recording
  • Ethelbert Miller: Best Spoken Word Poetry Album
  • Randy Rainbow: Best Comedy Album
  • Nicholas Britell: Best Score Soundtrack for Visual Media
  • Lady Gaga: Best Song Written for Visual Media
  • Jessy Wilson: Best Song Written for Visual Media
  • Laura Veltz: Songwriter of the Year


Jeff Parker is an entertainment writer for A writer for film, television and the internet, Jeff is a life long movie buff, with an actual Masters Degree in Popular Culture. He lives in Halifax, Nova Scotia, where he works full time as documentary filmmaker and producer.

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