How Would Acquiring Rodgers Affect Jets’ Odds?

How Would Acquiring Rodgers Affect Jets’ Odds?
Fact Checked by Pat McLoone

While nothing is official, it sure seems like Aaron Rodgers will return to the NFL for the 2023 season. And the team he will be playing for will not be the Green Bay Packers. Instead, it appears a trade to the New York Jets could happen at any point in the next few days.

The compensation still needs to be worked out, but it’s clear there is a lot of interest from all three sides to get a deal done.

So . . . assuming the Jets do land Rodgers, what does that mean for their Super Bowl chances for the 2023-2024 season?

The prospect of Rodgers heading east no doubt has Jets fans and New York sportsbooks excited.

Their current odds to win the Super Bowl are +1600, according to BetMGM Sportsbook New York. It’s clear BetMGM is factoring in a potential trade here, as the Jets should be nowhere near +1600 to win the Super Bowl without Rodgers under center. They are in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL and don't have a quality quarterback under center.

That is why they were +2500 to win the Super Bowl just a month ago on NY sports betting apps before news of a possible trade was even mentioned. But you can rest assured the Jets will see even more line movement once the deal for Rodgers becomes official.

As it is, at +1600, the Jets have risen to the sixth spot on the BetMGM board, behind the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs (+500), the Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers (+both 850) and the Philadelphia Eagles and Cincinnati Bengals (+900).

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History of Odds When QBs Shift

So, what would the odds be for the Jets to win Super Bowl 58 with Rodgers under center? The hypothetical odds would shift them to +1200, which would be a +1300 increase from February. But is that the most we've ever seen a futures line shift because of a quarterback move? Nope. Not even close. — your source for NY sportsbook promos — did some research. Using the odds from, we can look at three of the biggest veteran additions over the last few seasons and see just how much the odds shifted once a franchise quarterback was acquired. Take a look at the line movement from these three quarterback moves:

SeasonPlayer AcquiredOdds Before DealOdds After DealOdds Shift
🏈 2022-23Russell Wilson to Broncos+2200+12001,000
🏈 2021-22Matthew Stafford to Rams+2200+11001,100
🏈 2020-21Tom Brady to Buccaneers+6600+9005,700
SeasonPlayer AcquiredCurrent OddsHypothetical OddsOdds Shift
🏈 2023-24Aaron Rodgers to Jets+1600+1200400


Analyzing the Numbers

In the case of Matthew Stafford and Tom Brady, the futures line shifted a ton, but not enough. Stafford and Brady won Super Bowls with their respective teams in the first season together. While neither team (Rams, Buccaneers) was considered the favorite to win the Super Bowl, they were both highly-respected contenders in the NFC.

However, big-time quarterback additions don’t always work out. Look no further than Russell Wilson in Denver. Many, including oddsmakers, believed he was the missing piece for the Broncos going into the 2022 season. Their odds to win the Super Bowl were nearly cut in half once the trade was announced, but the Broncos finished at 5-12 and in last place in the AFC West. The expectations couldn’t have been any higher, and the Broncos couldn’t have delivered less last season.

So, while the expectation is the Jets will be one of the top teams in the AFC with Rodgers next year, that’s certainly not a lock to happen. Rodgers is coming off the worst passing season of his career, averaging less than 220 yards passing per game. Going into his age-40 season, there is a chance Rodgers might not have it anymore. However, you can fully expect the Super Bowl odds for the Jets to jump way up once the move does become official. It will be fascinating to see how much their odds rise (or fall) before Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season.

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Marcus Mosher covers the NFL, NFL Draft and NFL news for The managing editor of The Raiders Wire is also a contributor to The Athletic DFW, Pro Football Weekly and FanSided, and previously wrote for FanRag Sports. He hosts Locked On Cowboys Podcast.

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