Hometown Heroes: Hypothetical Odds on Golden Globe Nominees from New York

Hometown Heroes: Hypothetical Odds on Golden Globe Nominees from New York
Fact Checked by Thomas Leary

The 80th Golden Globes will air on Jan. 10 at 8:00pm ET. The annual show recognizes achievements in television and film and is presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.

With New York sports betting nearing its one year anniversary around the same time as the Globes, NewYorkBets thought an appropriate way to analyze what state natives' chances of winning would be to set hypothetical betting odds.

In years past, New Yorkers have made a big splash at the annual awards show. Beloved hometown performers like Al Pacino and Robert De Niro each have four wins to their name. But can you guess who has the most Golden Globe wins from inside the state?

That would be Brooklyn’s own Alan Alda, who’s won 6 times against 11 nominations for his role as Hawkeye Pierce on M*A*S*H — including a dominating 4-year run of wins between 1980-1983.

If, however, you include honorary awards, Big Apple superstars Barbra Streisand and Jane Fonda leap to the front with 8 total wins (4 in competition and 4 honorary awards).

But what chance do Empire State stars have this year? Though New York sportsbooks aren’t currently taking wagers, here are some hypothetical odds and commentary on the five local celebs most likely to win a Golden Globe this year.

Remember, stay close to this site for the best NY betting apps.

Hypothetical Betting Odds on the Golden Globes

Nominee Odds Implied Probability
John Turturro (Best Supporting Actor – TV Series) 4-5 55%
Jeremy Allen White (Best Actor in a TV Series – Comedy) 1-1 50%
Henry Winkler (Best Supporting Actor – TV Series) 3-2 40%
Tony Kushner (Best Screenplay – Motion Picture) 3-1 25%
Angela Bassett (Best Supporting Actress) 5-1 16.67%
Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress – TV Series) 9-1 10%
Claire Danes (Best Supporting Actress – TV Movie/Limited) 15-1 6.25%
Tyler James Williams (Best Supporting Actor — TV Series) 13-1 7.14%

Top 5 Most Likely New Yorkers To Win

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1. John Turturro (Best Supporting Actor – TV Series) — 4-5 (55% implied)

Nominated for his role as Irving Bailiff on Severance, Brooklyn native John Turturro has a great shot of taking home his first Golden Globe this year after being nominated twice previously.

Severance is an unsettling sci-fi series about corporate employees who choose to “sever” their memories between their work lives and their personal lives via a medical procedure. The result is a kind of split-personality, and Turturro in particular strikes this balance well. While at work he’s a stickler for the rules and a bit of a pill, whereas off the job his “outie” (as its called in the show) is an artist and a war veteran.

Turturro’s nuanced performance has drawn acclaim from critics, and Globe voters love to reward industry vets in these supporting categories. While not a lock, this is definitely Turturro’s award to lose.

2. Jeremy Allen White (Best Actor in a TV Series – Comedy) — 1-1 (50% implied)

Before FX’s The Bear became one of the most-talked about TV shows earlier this year, Jeremy Allen White was probably best known as one of the eldest Gallagher siblings on the Showtime series Shameless.

Now he’s knocking on the door of bona fide stardom with his turn as Carmy Berzatto, a classically trained chef who, after a family tragedy, returns home to Chicago to run his family’s Italian sandwich shop.

While both Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building) and Bill Hader (Barry) are strong contenders, Jeremy Allen White seems poised to follow in the footsteps of another nominee in this category, Donald Glover — who took home this award in 2017 for his work on the first season of FX’s hit series Atlanta.

3. Henry Winkler (Best Supporting Actor – TV Series) — 3-2 (40% implied)

This is Henry Winkler’s third nomination for Barry, where he plays the domineering acting coach Gene Cousineau. He’s yet to win, but season three found his character at an interesting crossroads after learning Barry’s true identity as a hitman for hire. 

Cousineau has been a delight throughout the show’s run, but season 3 allowed Winkler to flex his underrated range as a thespian.

While I still think Turturro has the edge in this category, it’s worth noting Winkler is no stranger to Golden Globe success. He won in back-to-back years during the late-70s for his iconic role as the Fonz on Happy Days.

4. Tony Kushner (Best Screenplay – Motion Picture) — 3-1 (25% implied)

A prominent playwright, Tony Kushner has become Steven Spielberg’s go-to screenwriter in the recent past. His nom for The Fabelmans is his third screenplay nomination at the Globes. The other two were for Munich and Lincoln — both directed by Spielberg.

Of course, Kushner’s also the man responsible for Angels in America, the heartbreaking play and subsequent mini series about the AIDS crisis, which won five Globes back in 2004.

It will be difficult to beat Everything Everywhere All At Once and Banshees of Inisherin, but I’m putting Kushner (who shares his nomination with Spielberg) at a 25% implied chance of winning. 

Why? Momentum is building for The Fabelmans. If it could sweep in all five of its categories, it would cement Spielberg’s semi-autobiographical coming of age story as the awards season frontrunner heading into this year’s Oscars.

5. Angela Bassett (Best Supporting Actress) — 5-1 (16.67% implied)

This award is most likely going to either Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once) or Kerry Condon (Banshees of Inisherin), but these odds imply a slightly over 15% chance Bassett upsets for her role as Ramonda in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.

A win here would break the so-called “super hero curse.” While both Heath Ledger (2009) and Joaquin Phoenix (2020) won for their respective turns as Batman’s nemesis The Joker — no actor playing a super hero has ever won an Oscar or a Golden Globe.

Stay close to this site for hypothetical odds such as this, as well as the best NY sportsbook promo codes.

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Jeff Parker is an entertainment writer for NewYorkBets.com. A writer for film, television and the internet, Jeff is a life long movie buff, with an actual Masters Degree in Popular Culture. He lives in Halifax, Nova Scotia, where he works full time as documentary filmmaker and producer.

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